All posts by Christine Anderson

research

Winter seminars highlight research on work-zone safety, culvert design, and more

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Join us in person on the U of M campus or tune in online to the CTS winter research seminars. The seminars will highlight a sampling of the latest transportation research at the U of M.

Here’s this year’s seminar schedule:

Each seminar will be held in Room 50B at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs. Or, if you can’t make it in person, you can watch the seminars live online or view recordings posted after the events. For details about the live broadcasts, see the individual seminar web pages.

There’s no cost to attend, and each seminar qualifies for one Professional Development Hour.

Hope to see you there!

research, Traffic and Safety

New permitted left-turn model helps improve intersection safety

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In recent years, the transportation community has introduced significant changes to improve left-turn safety at signalized intersections—and for good reason. Nationally, intersection crashes represent one-fifth of all fatal crashes, and most of these are crashes involving left turns.

In response to this serious safety problem, the FHWA has adopted a new national standard for permissive left turns: the flashing yellow arrow. This signal warns drivers that they should proceed with a left turn only after yielding to any oncoming traffic or pedestrians. Flashing yellow arrow signals can help prevent crashes, move more traffic through an intersection, and provide additional traffic management flexibility.

Many transportation agencies, including MnDOT, are interested in using the new flashing yellow arrow signals to accommodate within-day changes: protected left turns (signaled by a green arrow) could be used when needed to lower crash risk, while permitted left turns (signaled by a flashing yellow arrow) could be used to reduce delay when crash risk is low.

“Of course, this requires being able to predict how the risk of left-turn crashes changes as intersection and traffic characteristics change within the course of a day,” says Gary Davis, a professor of civil, environmental, and geo- engineering at the University of Minnesota.

To help engineers make more informed decisions about when to use flashing yellow arrows, Davis is leading the development of a model that could help predict the probability of left-turn crash risk at a given intersection at different times of day. This model—which will ultimately be available as a set of spreadsheet tools—will help traffic engineers determine when the crash risk is sufficiently low to allow for the safe use of flashing yellow arrows. The project is sponsored by MnDOT and the Minnesota Local Road Research Board.

To develop the statistical model, the researchers needed to determine how the risk for left-turn crashes varies depending on time of day, traffic flow conditions, and intersection features (such as number of opposing lanes, number of left-turn lanes, and median size). The process included developing a database containing left-turn crash information, intersection features, and traffic volumes, as well as developing a set of 24-hour traffic pattern estimates to help fill gaps where hourly traffic volume counts were not available. The resulting statistical model uses this information to determine relative crash risk for every hour of the day at a given type of intersection.

Currently, Davis and his team are using the model to develop a spreadsheet tool that will allow traffic engineers to choose their type of intersection and enter the available turning movement count. The tool will then generate a specialized graph for that intersection showing the relative crash risk by time of day. Any time the crash risk is at or below the level identified as acceptable, engineers can consider using flashing yellow arrows.

“By simulating how crash risk changes as traffic conditions change, this model could help identify conditions when permitted left-turn treatments would be a good choice and what times of day a protected left turn might be a better option,” Davis says.

Moving forward, Davis is leading an additional project related to the use of flashing yellow arrows, funded by the Roadway Safety Institute. The project will first review video data of drivers making permitted left turns to characterize left-turn gap acceptance and turning trajectories. Then, Davis will incorporate the findings into the existing statistical model. To further improve the model’s accuracy, the study will compare the crashes described by the simulation model with reconstructed real-world left-turn crashes.

Traffic and Safety

New crash report interface will improve usability and data quality

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The data collected at the scene of a crash by law enforcement officers are important for more than just drivers and their insurance companies. The information is also used on a much larger scale by state agencies and researchers to analyze and evaluate crashes, trends, and potential countermeasures.

“Big decisions get made based on that data—million-dollar decisions,” says Nichole Morris, a research associate at the U of M’s HumanFIRST Laboratory. “So you have to be sure that what goes in to that report is high quality and reflects what actually happened at the scene of the crash.”

As part of an effort to improve this data quality in Minnesota, Morris is leading a team of HumanFIRST researchers in a project to redesign the electronic crash report interface used by law enforcement officers. The team’s goal is to create a new interface that improves the accuracy, speed, reliability, and meaningfulness of crash report data.police_guy

The project is occurring in conjunction with a redesign of Minnesota’s crash records database and is being sponsored by the Traffic Records Coordinating Committee (TRCC) at the Minnesota Department of Public Safety (DPS) and by MnDOT.

“In industry, they do this work all the time, looking at usability and design. But when you think about what a state does in terms of usability, nothing like this to our knowledge has ever been done. This makes it a very exciting and revolutionary project for Minnesota,” Morris says.

In the first phase of the project, the researchers completed a human factors analysis on the existing crash report interface to identify potential problem areas. This included a step-by-step task analysis and in-depth interviews with law enforcement officers.

During this process, the researchers identified several areas they hoped to improve. For instance, they wanted the new interface to be smarter, making better use of autofill features to reduce the amount of manual data entry.

Following the analysis, the team built two versions of a mock crash report interface for usability testing: a wizard and a form. In both versions, the researchers added decision aids to ease usability. They also significantly improved the system’s autofill capabilities, reducing the ratio of officer to system data entry from 6:1 to nearly 1:1.

The researchers then conducted four rounds of usability testing with law enforcement officers for both the wizard and the form. Results were split: half the officers preferred the wizard and half preferred the form. Because of these findings, the TRCC is planning to build full versions of both, Morris says, which will allow officers to use the version they prefer.

Going forward, the researchers plan to make a few more adjustments to the research prototype before handing it off to the state vendor, Appriss, which will build the new system. The team will then work collaboratively with Appriss to complete additional beta and usability testing before the new interface launches in January 2016.

“The results of the HumanFIRST prototypes are being combined with the vendor’s prior experience for a best-of-breed approach,” says Kathleen Haney, traffic records coordinator at DPS. “This is a fantastic project, and the results will be relevant for years to come.”

Read more about the project in the December 2014 CTS Catalyst.

research, Traffic and Safety

Teen Driver Support System helps reduce risky driving behavior

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Although teen drivers make up a small percentage of the U.S. driving population, they are at an especially high risk of being involved in a crash. In fact, drivers between ages 16 and 19 have higher average annual crash rates than any other age group.

To help teen drivers stay safe on the road, researchers at the U of M’s HumanFIRST Laboratory have been working for nearly 10 years on the development of the Teen Driver Support System (TDSS). The smartphone-based application provides real-time, in-vehicle feedback to teens about their risky behaviors—and reports those behaviors to parents via text message if teens don’t heed the system’s warnings.

TDSS provides alerts about speed limits, upcoming curves, stop sign violations, excessive maneuvers, and seat belt use. It also prevents teens from using their phones to text or call (except 911) while driving.

The research team recently completed a 12-month field operational test of the system with funding from MnDOT. The test involved 300 newly licensed teens from 18 communities in Minnesota.

To measure the effectiveness of the TDSS on driving behavior, the teens were divided into three groups: a control group in which driving behavior was monitored but no feedback was given, a group in which the TDSS provided only in-vehicle feedback to teens, and a group with both in-vehicle and parent feedback from the TDSS.

Preliminary results show that teens in the TDSS groups engaged in less risky behavior, especially the group that included parent feedback. These teens were less likely to speed or to engage in aggressive driving.

Although these results demonstrate that the TDSS can be effective in reducing risky driving behavior in teens, Janet Creaser, HumanFIRST research fellow and a lead researcher on the project, stresses that technology is not a substitute for parent interaction.

“The whole goal of our system is to get parents talking to their teens about safe driving.” Creaser says. “And maybe, if you’re a parent getting 10 text messages a week, you’ll take your teen out and help them learn how to drive a little more safely.”

Read the full article in the November issue of Catalyst.

Policy and Planning

Changing demographics and travel choices may shape a very different future

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Though no one can predict the future, thinking about how today’s changes may shape the future of transportation in our country is more important now than ever before.

“It’s critical that we understand the significance of things that are taking place and prepare for what may come,” said former Utah Department of Transportation CEO John Njord in the opening session of the 25th Annual CTS Transportation Research Conference. “For us to be relevant in the transportation business, at a minimum we have to be adaptable to change, and ideally we want to be leading change in the transportation industry.”

In his current position at Tom Warne and Associates, Njord has gained an in-depth understanding of the trends affecting the future of transportation in the United States while spearheading the Transportation Research Board’s “Foresight” project—part of the organization’s forward-looking NCHRP Report 750 Series. The project addresses a wide range of topics, including: What if the oil-fueled auto era ends and revenue from gas taxes dries up? What if engineering practices must be upgraded to ensure resiliency to natural disasters as global warming continues? What if technology such as self-driving cars eliminates or reduces the need for human drivers? What if tomorrow’s economy requires radically different freight patterns?

Perhaps most significantly, the project explores the possibility that Americans are losing their appetite for driving. Vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) per capita been dropping since 2004, without any signs of recovery. “It’s impossible to know whether that number will start growing again, stay flat, or continue to drop,” Njord said.

Other trends make the future outlook equally complex. In 50 years the United States will likely be home to 100 million more people, so even if VMT per person stays flat or declines, it’s likely total VMT will be larger than it is today. The population is also aging: by 2030, 20 percent of the population will be over 65 and will likely drive less. In addition, Millenials are staying home longer and waiting until later in life to get married and have children—all of which affects their travel behavior.

To help transportation planners consider all possible futures, the Foresight project encourages the use of multiple-scenario planning. “We need to begin considering all the possible scenarios and generating plans that are independent and distinct from one another,” Njord advised. “The act of thinking about these things is fundamentally important, because the shift that is now taking place means we’re going to have to do things much differently in the next 50 years than what we’ve done in the past 50 years.”

Following Njord’s presentation, a panel of experts discussed how the the Foresight project could relate to what’s happening in the Twin Cities region. An article summarizing their comments is available in the July issue of Catalyst.

research, Traffic and Safety

Primary seat belt law continues to save lives, money

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Minnesota’s primary seat belt law continues to save lives and reduce serious injuries more than four years after being passed, according to a study by researchers at the U of M’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs.

The study examined Minnesota crash data collected from June 2009 (when the law was implemented) through June 2013 and compared it to expected data based on crash trends over time. Findings indicate that there were at least 132 fewer deaths, 434 fewer severe injuries, and 1,270 fewer moderate injuries than expected during this time.

According to the researchers, the safety benefits of the law translate into a savings of at least $67 million in avoided hospital charges, including nearly $16 million in taxpayer dollars that would have paid for Medicare and Medicaid charges.

The study was sponsored by the Minnesota Department of Public Safety and led by Humphrey School research fellow Frank Douma and Nebiyou Tilahun, a U of M graduate now on the faculty at the University of Illinois-Chicago.

The researchers also examined seat belt use data and survey results that measured support for the law. Findings show that support increased from 62 percent just before the law was passed to more than 70 percent in 2013, while the percentage of Minnesotans buckling up was at an all-time high of nearly 95 percent in 2013. This shows that some people are wearing their seat belts even though they don’t support the law.

When this increased seat belt use is combined with the reduction in fatalities and injuries, it further demonstrates that people are surviving—and even walking away from—crashes that may have had different results if the primary seat belt law had not been in effect.

Read the full article in the June issue of CTS Catalyst.

Aviation

Unmanned aircraft systems create buzz of activity, but challenges remain

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In late 2013, Amazon.com announced that it plans to someday use unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) to deliver packages. Amazon is not alone in considering these systems—the list of potential uses for this technology is rapidly expanding. Where is this technology headed, and what does it mean for the region, and for transportation?

State and national experts discussed these issues at an April 30 forum hosted by the Airport Technical Assistance Program (AirTAP), a part of CTS.

Often referred to as drones, modern UASs can be used for a broad range of activities, from aerial photography, surveying, precision agriculture, and communications to disaster response, wildlife research, and infrastructure protection.

Potential uses of UASs include precision agriculture.
Potential uses of UASs include precision agriculture.

A hurdle to broader use is the lack of rules and regulations. Last November the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) released its first annual roadmap outlining policies, regulations, technologies, and procedures needed to safely integrate UASs into U.S. airspace; it plans to issue regulations by 2015.

“The greatest challenge is integrating UASs into the National Airspace System,” said Brigadier General Alan Palmer, director of the Center for UAS Research, Education, and Training at the University of North Dakota. “We want to do this safely, we want to do no harm, and we want to be sure not to violate somebody’s personal space. We do not have any regulations for standards, training, certification, or anything like them. But we will get there.”

Other concerns include privacy issues and the existing aviation/navigation infrastructure, which did not account for a future including UASs when it was built 50 years ago.

To learn more about the forum, read the full article in the June issue of Catalyst. In addition, a proceedings from the event will be available on the AirTAP website this summer.

research

Why do men and women travel differently? Study sheds light on gender differences

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Despite their more similar roles at work and home than ever before, U.S. men and women continue to have different travel behavior. Historically, employed men have spent more time traveling to work and less time on household and family support trips than women. While this difference is well-documented, explanations for the difference vary widely: some theories say it’s due to biologically driven differences in gender, while others attribute it to socially constructed gender roles or to gendered structural contexts such as labor market segregation and economic inequality.

While much research has examined these theories, few studies have tested their validity based on evidence—which prompted U of M researchers to examine the theories more deeply. “We believe a greater understanding of the underlying reasons for these enduring travel differences is necessary to effectively address the gender equity issue in transportation policy,” says Yingling Fan, assistant professor in the U’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs.

Researchers set out to test the competing theories by analyzing publicly available data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) in various ways across groups of workers with different types of family structures. (ATUS is an ongoing time diary study funded by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.)

First, they tested the theory that travel behavior differences were based on biologically driven gender differences. “If this theory was true, travel differences between men and women could be applied across all population groups regardless of family structure, but this was not the case,” Fan explains. “We found that single female workers and single male workers exhibit no significant difference in travel behavior.”

Next, the team studied the impact of gendered structural contexts, such as women’s greater presence in pink-collar occupations and significantly lower earnings. The team found moderate support for this theory. “These factors are associated with shorter work travel time among some—but not all—family structures,” Fan says.Shopping

Researchers did find strong support, however, for the theory that socially constructed gender roles explain travel behavior differences. “We discovered that while marriage alone doesn’t differentiate travel behavior between men and women, parenthood does have a significant impact,” Fan says. “Interestingly, we found that even being the sole breadwinner does not insulate mothers from socially constructed gender roles—female breadwinners in married single-worker households with children have shorter work commutes and more household support travel than male breadwinners in the same family structure.”

According to the researchers, these findings have important implications. First, policies to minimize auto travel (for environmental purposes, for example) may be unfair to women who wish to reach more job possibilities through longer commutes. In addition, the findings highlight the importance of incorporating parenthood as a prime variable in understanding the gender and mobility connection.

Finally, this research provides insights on how future growth or decline in specific family structures may shape travel demand. “As childless households continue to grow in relation to households with children, it’s possible that fewer female workers will be confined by short work commutes and may choose to spend more time commuting to more desirable jobs, placing new demands on the transportation system,” Fan says.

The research was funded in part by a Minnesota Population Center Program Development Grant.

Reprinted from the May 2014 issue of CTS Catalyst.

Traffic and Safety

New Roadway Safety Institute focuses on user-centered solutions for multiple modes

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The new Roadway Safety Institute, a $10.4 million regional University Transportation Center (UTC) established in late 2013, will conduct a range of research, education, and technology transfer initiatives related to transportation safety. Led by the University of Minnesota, the two-year consortium will develop and implement user-centered safety solutions across multiple modes.

The Institute will be a focal point for safety-related work in the region, which includes Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Other consortium members are the University of Akron, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, and Western Michigan University.

Max Donath, professor of mechanical engineering at the U of M, serves as the new Institute’s director. In this month’s issue of the CTS newsletter, Catalyst, Donath shared his vision for the Institute.

According to Donath, the Institute will focus on addressing regional traffic safety priorities, educating the public, and attracting more professionals to the safety workforce by connecting with students.

Research topics will focus on two key areas, Donath said: high-risk road users and traffic safety system approaches. The goal of this work is to prevent the crashes that lead to fatalities and injuries on the region’s roads.

One unique Institute effort will involve working with American Indian communities in the region to explore and address the unusually high number of motor vehicle crash fatalities on tribal lands.  “Our research will work to better understand why this is happening and to develop more effective solutions,” Donath said.

Read the full Q&A in the April issue of Catalyst.

Policy and Planning, research

Funding highway projects with value capture could speed project completion

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There’s broad agreement that the U.S. transportation system cannot continue to be funded with existing financing and revenue-generation methods. What’s unclear, however, is how to pay for highway projects in the future. The current transportation funding system emphasizes user fees, but there is growing interest in alternative funding strategies. One promising strategy is value capture, which aims to recover the value of benefits received by property owners and developers as a result of infrastructure improvements.

In recent years, University of Minnesota researchers have helped lead the way in value capture research with a series of reports identifying value capture strategies. In a newly published study, the research team applied their previous work to a real-world scenario, with impressive results.

The new research, sponsored by the Minnesota Department of Transportation, focused on the planned development of Trunk Highway 610 (TH 610) in Maple Grove, Minnesota—a stretch of planned state highway delayed for years by state transportation funding shortages. Researchers set out to discover how the value of the enhanced accessibility provided by the planned improvements could be predicted and captured to help fund the project’s completion.

To accomplish their goal, researchers first defined a study area of about 10 square miles surrounding the unfinished highway segment. Then, they modeled property values based on five factors using parcel-level data. This model was designed to isolate the so-called “highway premium” by controlling for other factors that affect land value including water views, open space, railroads, transit stops, and existing highway exits. Using this model, researchers found significant evidence that the completion of the highway could lead to an over $17 million increase in property value.

Researchers expect these findings to have significant benefits for the TH 610 project and beyond.

Read the full article in the March issue of Catalyst.

Photo courtesy of SRF Consulting Group, Inc.